Cisco Sees Tipping Point And Revs Engines For Growth


Cisco Systems may have disappointed Wall Street with its fourth quarter results.

But the network giant says its recently completed fourth quarter may have been the “tipping point,” where sales declines from the global downturn began reversing themselves and growth resumed.

As a result, “we are now moving the entire focus of the company to growth,” says CEO John Chambers. It is possible a couple of quarters from now “we will look back and see that the tipping point was the fourth quarter.”

At first, the growth may be hard to see. The company projected first quarter sales would decline 15 to 17 percent from a year ago. But they will be up 1 to 3 percent from the fourth quarter, compared with the typical 1 to 2 percent rise expected from a fourth to a first quarter.

This is an “aggressive, bold statement,” Chambers said on a conference call with analysts. “Overall, this is business as normal.”

While a second quarter of positive quarter-to-quarter growth would be a welcome sign for the company (the fourth quarter also had quarter-to-quarter growth, the company’s first quarter in a year) it is not guaranteed. Cisco’s key router and switch businesses continued to decline in the fourth quarter, with router sales were off 27 percent and switch revenue slumping 20 percent.

But it reflects what Chambers said were improving business trends in the United States, Asia Pacific and in emerging markets. Only Europe appears to be lagging.

Cisco hopes to take advantage of the improving market place by investing in approximately 30 new business opportunities. These include what Cisco calls its smart connected communities (marketed to overseas governments) and its smart grid technologies for improving energy efficiency.

“It is too soon to call a recovery,” Chambers says. But the fourth quarter saw the first positive economic signals.

That means it is time for the aggressive equipment supplier to rev its engines.