Gartner Sees An Uptick In Fourth Quarter Computer Sales


The global downturn has put the hurt on personal computer sales, with the market expected to be down 6 percent this year.

But the tide is turning. Fourth-quarter sales should rise after nine months of declines, and 2010 should see a surprising rebound.

This more optimistic outlook comes from Gartner and represents a revision of the research firm’s May forecast. Then, the firm expected a 6.6 percent drop in the market this year

Gartner says it anticipates the second and third quarters to see 10 percent declines followed by an increase in the fourth quarter. Shipments are projected to grow 10.3 percent in 2010.

While it is too early to say the worst of the market decline is over, the forecast is another sign that the economy has reached the bottom of the turn down.

The market appears to be strengthening, Gartner says in a press release. Part of the reason is the strength of netbooks, or small notebooks. Netbook shipments should reach 21 million units this year and 30 million next year. Mobile PCs, in total, will climb 4 percent this year while desktops fall almost 16 percent.

One observation from Gartner may prove wrong: “the impact of Windows 7’s release in October on the PC market is likely to be very modest.” Unless Microsoft mounts a big marketing campaign, consumers will wait to adopt it with new PC purchases, the firm says.

I don’t dispute the impact may be modest. But on the other hand, don’t dismiss the possibility of a big marketing splash from the Redmond marketing machine.